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Haghbayan M, Khatami S S, Nasrollahi Heravi F. The Estimation of Newly Infected Cases of Covid-19 with Consideration of Governmental Action and Behavior of People in Iran. sjmshm 2021; 3 (1) :1-7
URL: http://sjmshm.srpub.org/article-3-81-en.html
The Estimation of Newly Infected Cases of Covid-19 with Consideration of Governmental Action and Behavior of People in Iran
Mahdi Haghbayan * , Seyed Sepehr Khatami , Fereshteh Nasrollahi Heravi
Master Student of Industrial Engineering , Amir Kabir University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract:   (2041 Views)
The Novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused 414179 infected cases and 18440 deaths up to March 25, 2020. The aim of this study was to estimate the new cases of COVID-19 in future days in Iran based on multiple factors such as governmental actions and people's behavior. We constructed the model based on governmental actions, people's behavior and lag time for governmental action. We estimated the governmental actions ratio and people’s behavior with minimum sum square error with OptQuest arena software. By estimation the new cases under three scenarios for governmental actions, we predicted the new cases and cumulative death for different genders for all scenarios. Based on the first scenario, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3117. Total cumulative death for 110th day for males and females respectively was 3157 and 2285. According to the second scenario, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3117. Total cumulative death for 151st day for males and females respectively was 3504 and 2536. By selecting the third scenario, there were two peak points. In the first peak point, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3117. In the second peak, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3190. Based on the result of this study, it seems that the best option for the government is to keep social distance and close economic activity, so the number of new cases will be decreased.
Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, Newly infected cases-governmental action, Model simulation, Behavior of people
Full-Text [PDF 550 kb]   (586 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Public Health and Health Policy
Received: 2020/10/25 | Revised: 2020/11/15 | Accepted: 2020/11/30 | Published: 2021/01/30
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